Books
- The Philosophy of Keynes' Economics
- The Rise of Market Culture : The Textile Trade and French Society, 1750-1900
- The Theory of Social Situations : A Game-Theoretic Approach
- Bruges, Cradle of Capitalism, 1280-1390
- Great Economists before Keynes : An Introduction to the Lives and Works of One Hundred Great Economists of the Past
- Insider Lending : Banks, Personal Connections, and Economic Development in Industrial New England
- The Factory Question and Industrial England, 1830-1860
- Capital and Credit : A New Formulation of General Equilibrium Theory
- Trade, Traders and the Ancient City
- Money and Value : A Reconsideration of Classical and Neoclassical Monetary Economics (Econometric Society Monographs)
- Banking Panics of the Gilded Age (Studies in Macroeconomic History)
- Labour Unions, Public Policy and Economic Growth
- Credit, Currencies, and Culture: African Financial Institutions in Historical Perspective
- AlabamaNorth: African-American Migrants, Community, and Working-Class Activism in Cleveland, 1915-1945
- The Meaning of Market Process: Essays in the Development of Modern Austrian Economics (Foundations of the Market Economy)
- The Bukharans : A Dynastic, Diplomatic, and Commercial History, 1550-1702
- Japan's Economy in War and Reconstruction: Japanese Economic History, Volume 2
- Japan's Foreign Policy in the 1990s: From Economic Superpower to What Power? (St. Antony's Series)
- The Spread of Political Economy and the Professionalisation of Economists (Economic Societies in Europe, America and Japan in the Nineteenth Century)
- Social Choice, Welfare, and Ethics : Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium in Economic Theory and Econometrics (International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics)
- T. R. Malthus: Volume 2 : The Unpublished Papers in the Collection of Kanto Gakuen University (Econometric Society Monographs)
- Reflections on the Classical Canon in Economics: Essays in Honor of Samual Hollander
- Chapters from The Agrarian History of England and Wales: Volume 3, Agricultural Change: Policy and Practice, 1500-1750 (Chapters from the Agrarian History of England and Wales 1500-1750, Vol 3)
- The European Linen Industry in Historical Perspective (Pasold Studies in Textile History, 13)
- Manufacture in Town and Country Before the Factory
Average customer rating:
- The Failure of the "New Economics"
- If you haven't read this masterpiece at least twice
- Neoclassical Economics is a Special Case
- The core of Keynesian theory
- If one man can be credited for saving Western civilization, why not Keynes?
|
The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (Great Minds Series)
John Maynard Keynes
Manufacturer: Prometheus Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
 General
| Popular Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Labor & Industrial Relations
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Theory
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Look Inside Business Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
Look Inside Nonfiction Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
Similar Items:
- The Wealth of Nations (Modern Library Classics)
- Capitalism and Freedom: Fortieth Anniversary Edition
- The Wealth of Nations (Bantam Classics)
- The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation (Dover Value Editions)
- The Road to Serfdom Fiftieth Anniversary Edition
ASIN: 1573921394 |
Customer Reviews:
The Failure of the "New Economics".......2007-05-22
Henry Hazlitt,
"A Path-Breaking Pioneer?
Now though I have analyzed Keynes's General Theory in the following pages theorem by theorem, chapter by chapter, and sometimes even sentence by sentence, to what to some readers may appear a tedious length, I have been unable to find in it a single important doctrine that is both true and original. What is original in the book is not true; and what is true is not original. In fact, as we shall find, even much that is fallacious in the book is not original, but can be found in a score of previous writers."
If you haven't read this masterpiece at least twice.......2007-04-18
...you're not a real person. If it was not for this wizard's brilliant insight on how to create prosperity with a little math and a little monetary expansion, there would undoubtedly still be poverty in the world today. It's not just a book, it's a religion. And it's the best religion.
Verdict: Read it at least twice.
Neoclassical Economics is a Special Case.......2007-03-30
I'm an undergrad economics student, and I was always puzzled by the "Keynesian" economics they taught me. I couldn't see how it fit in with the market clearing story they were also telling me. So I decided to give this book a shot. After reading it, I was surprised at how simple the main concept is. I didn't find it difficult to read at all, or badly organized (but maybe that's because I'm used to reading philosophy). Basically, just like they teach you in Principles of Macroeconomics, the heart of the theory is the Keynesian Cross (which is a rough approximation of Keynes' D-Z model in this book). The consumption function leaves a gap between income and expenditures, which must be filled by planned investment, or the economy will move to a lower equilibrium via the multiplier. Classical economics, in effect, just assumes that gap is always filled by planned investment (where the economy is at full employment, no less) without even making an argument for it. In the classical model, any decrease in planned investment is matched by an increase in consumption, or vice versa. But there is no good reason to think that will be the case, generally. If you hoard your money today, businessmen do not have a magic crystal ball that allows them to determine what you will spend it on in 5 years. Thus they do not invest. A decrease in consumption is not matched by an increase in planned investment. The economy will move to a new, lower equilibrium via the Keynesian Cross, in which income equals expenditures (i.e. no hoarding any more).
The one thing I did find confusing in the book, though, was Keynes' assertion that saving always equals investment, by defintion. I determined that this results from an incorrect definition of saving. While on an individual level, saving is income minus consumption, the same is not true for the economy as a whole. It is more accurate to say that saving in the aggregate is always zero, because an individual act of saving is always matched by an equal amount of dissaving by someone else (the saving deprives them of their income, unless the the savings are invested, in which case they are no longer savings). The gap between income and consumption, in the aggregate, is always investment. Its just the form of investment that changes. If the gap between income and consumption isn't filled by planned investment, it will be filled up by "unplanned" investment (i.e. inventories build up). In macroeconomic equilibrium, there is no unplanned investment. Thus, Y = Ip (planned investment) + C. Classical economics assumes that Y - C always equals Ip, and at the point of full employment. Keynes's theory is the more general case when Y - C could equal Iu (unplanned investment). In that case, the economy moves to a below optimal equilibrium that does not correspond to full employment.
I would definitely recommend this book if you're an economist, or if you have anything to do with public policy. Or even if you're just curious. Don't be frightened off by the people who tell you its "unreadable" or "a mess." They just can't handle a real scholar who writes precisely and clearly.
The core of Keynesian theory.......2006-09-17
The General Theory is the main work of Keynes and his theory, which is was written to distinguish himself from the classical theory. The style is fairly hard to read, as the language is not easy and the contents obviously very advanced. Nevertheless, reading this book is worth the efforts, as the theory (so often very badly taught at schools and universities) becomes crystal clear. At the same time, it is a book that should ideally be read by someone who has at least got some basics in Economics, as otherwise the book may seem too hard.
When reading this book, we further gain direct insight into the mind of a beautiful mind. The style, although difficult, is that of a current of thoughts, which shows us how profoundly this man was able to think about very complex matters. It is truly one of the most important writings in the fields of Economics, but also a show case of pure genious.
If one man can be credited for saving Western civilization, why not Keynes?.......2006-07-13
Sitting here is Baghdad, one hears often a simple solution to the counter insurgency problem. Usually it's some combination of winning hearts and minds and killing terrorists. The solution may be closer to burying money in the sand. That idea came from John Maynard Keynes who faced far larger problems than the war in Iraq. It's been 21 years since I read Keynes' General Theory, eighty years since it was first published. (My Econ department believed in teaching both major economic choices of the day: Capitalism and Communism. So I got some look at both.) What sold me on Keynes was his General Theory. What turned me against Marxism were my visits to Eastern Block countries where I could see its effect...on the economy and on humanity. There is a heart inside Keynes book, the General Theory, the same heart that wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace. Keynes does get blamed for failed economic policies of those Keynesians of the sixties and seventies who believed they could tinker the economy into perfection. Mistrust developed in Keynes General Theory. But when I read his book, from start to finish, I came to the conclusion that people just didn't finish the book. They must have skipped over the second half to believe you could just spend your way to prosperity or reverse bad times with clever monetary policy. His theory has worked for 80 years. The book may not be for you, but it is a masterpiece, something to be savored as the seminal work which transformed Classical Economics at a time when the world needed saving, when the alternative, Marxism, which stole the heart of half the globe, but would prove capable only of impoverishing and dehumanizing. The world owes more the Keynes than it acknowledges. If you love the history of ideas, it's a must read or at least it adds a credibility to your library which a select few can appreciate.
Average customer rating:
|
The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes
John Maynard Keynes
Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
Economic History
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Theory
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Popular Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Look Inside Business Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
Look Inside Nonfiction Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
ASIN: 0521221048 |
Book Description
This volume, together with volumes 13 and 29, provides an insight into the development of Keynes’s thinking in the monetary field from the time of the Tract in 1923 to the Treatise in 1930, onward to The General Theory in 1936, and after its publication.
Average customer rating:
|
The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes
John Maynard Keynes
Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
Economic History
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Theory
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Popular Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Look Inside Business Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
Look Inside Nonfiction Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
Similar Items:
- The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (Great Minds Series)
ASIN: 0521221056 |
Book Description
Keynes’s correspondence, memoranda and contributions to the press during his period in the India Office, his first years as a Cambridge don and his membership of the Royal Commission on Indian Currency and Finance.
Average customer rating:
- A work of impeccable scholarship
- The Big Three in Economics
- The March to Today's Thinking
|
The Big Three in Economics: Adam Smith, Karl Marx, And John Maynard Keynes
Mark Skousen
Manufacturer: M.E. Sharpe
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
Social Scientists & Psychologists
| Professionals & Academics
| Biographies & Memoirs
| Subjects
| Books
Adams, John
| ( A )
| People, A-Z
| Biographies & Memoirs
| Subjects
| Books
Marx, Karl
| ( M )
| People, A-Z
| Biographies & Memoirs
| Subjects
| Books
Economic History
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Theory
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Popular Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Look Inside Biographies
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
Look Inside Business Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
Similar Items:
- The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (Great Minds Series)
- A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, and the Perils of Financial Innovation
- The Science of Success: How Market-Based Management Built the World's Largest Private Company
- The Wealth of Nations (Bantam Classics)
- On The Wealth of Nations (Books That Changed the World)
ASIN: 0765616947 |
Customer Reviews:
A work of impeccable scholarship.......2007-06-10
Enhanced throughout with charts and photos, "The Big Three In Economics: Adam Smith, Karl Marx, And John Maynard Keynes" by academician and economist Mark Skousen is a history of modern economics as represented by the contributions of the three most influential economists in world history. Adam Smith expounded a revolutionary new doctrine in the 18th century that a nation of rich and poor could flourish under laissez faire and an unfettered market; Karl Marx inspired disenfranchised workers and intellectuals in the 19th century to end the exploitation of the underprivileged by the powerful; and in the 20th century, British economist John Maynard Keynes sought to stabilize a crisis prone market system through activist fiscal and monetary government policies. A work of impeccable scholarship that draws from both biographical and historical data to showcase the lives and ideas of three men who shaped economic theory and practice form three centuries, and whose contributions continue to influence economists in the 21st century, "The Big Three In Economics" is very strongly recommended reading for both students of Economics and non-specialist general readers with an interest in economic history and theory.
The Big Three in Economics.......2007-05-11
The author Mark Skousen explains the differences of three schools of
economics real well plus its an easy read.
Bob Rivera
The March to Today's Thinking.......2007-03-17
This is an excellent book that shows the development of mainstream economic thinking in terms of the theories of the three giants in economics: Adam Smith, Karl Marx and John Maynard Keynes.
Adam Smith (1723-90) was the first. He basically provided the first foundation of what is now called economics. Today he is considered to the right wing of the economic scale. Interestingly enough, his views have prevailed.
Karl Marx (1818-83) reacted against the Adam Smith theory with the belief that the 'invisible hand' of the marketplace has no compassion for the workers and that this could be better administered by a compassionate government. Generally discredited today, his theories seems to live mostly in the halls of the universities.
John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) followed with an analysis of a way to stop recession/depression cycles that combined the Smith/Marx theories.
The author does an excellent job in tracing the impact of these three as it reaches today's world. At this time Smith is on top again, as modified by later thinkers, but as the author concludes in his last chapter,
'There is no telling how high the world's standard of living can reach through expanded trade, lower tariffs, a simplified tax system, school choice, Social Security privatization, a fair system of justice, and a stable monetary system. Yet bad policies, wasted resources, and class hatred die slowly.'
Average customer rating:
- Provides a correct overview of Keynes's preventive policies
|
Keynes's General Theory, the Rate of Interest and 'Keynesian' Economics
Geoff Tily
Manufacturer: Palgrave Macmillan
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
General
| Popular Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Money & Monetary Policy
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Theory
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Look Inside Business Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
ASIN: 1403996288
Release Date: 2007-03-20 |
Book Description
This book argues that Keynesian economists have betrayed Keynes's theory and policy conclusions. Keynesian economics has not merely led to an easily dismissed justification for 'Keynesian' policies, but the world has been grossly misled about just what those policies are. Keynesians have focused attention exclusively on policies for dealing with effects of economic failure as they arise, whereas in contrast, Keynes was concerned with the cause and then the prevention of economic failure. While these effects can be addressed with fiscal policy, the cause and prevention was a matter for monetary policy. Keynes's legacy is that of national and international policy measures that permit the necessary control over the financial system.
Customer Reviews:
Provides a correct overview of Keynes's preventive policies.......2006-06-29
Tily has written a very good book examining the policies laid down by Keynes to help prevent the occurrences of recessions and depressions in the first place.Keynes relies on his generalized quantity theory of money as laid out in chapter 21 of the General Theory,although this is overlooked by Tily.Keynes's generalized general theory is expressed by the condition w/p=mpl/e,where e=Mdp/pdM as defined by Keynes on p.305 of the GT.If e=1,then w/p=mpl and you have a full employment equilibrium in the aggregate labor market,where w is the money wage ,p is the expected price level,and mpl is the marginal product of labor derived from an aggregated neoclassical production function(see p.283 and p.285 of the GT).If e<1,then you have a set of multiple unemployment equilibriums.Keynes's monetary policy prescription is to require that the interest rate be fixed at a low rate.This prescription goes back to the policies of the Thomistic scholastic philosophers and Adam Smith in the Wealth of Nations(see WN,1776,pp.338-340).In fact,Smith's and Keynes's policy prescriptions are identical(GT,p.352).They require that the unsatisfied fringe of borrowers must consist of currency speculators,leveraged buyout artists,and stock market speculators(projectors) using margin account loans to leverage their stock holdings.Credit would have to be skewed away from these individuals by policy actions of the central bank.Keynes's policy is thus one of permanent easy money where all bank loans are made to individuals who intend to use it to attain or rent productive capital goods,build houses, construct factories,etc.Tily does not emphasize sufficiently Keynes's warning that the forces of banking and finance will oppose such a policy,making it practically impossible to implement.The policy is correct in theory,but is not practical to actually implement.This is where the promulgation of Bismarck's social welfare state or a negative income tax system comes into play.The deleterious impacts of a speculator-casino " crony capitalism " can be mitigated by such policies.
Average customer rating:
|
The Life of John Maynard Keynes
Roy Forbes, Sir Harrod
Manufacturer: W W Norton & Co Inc
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
General
| Biographies & Memoirs
| Subjects
| Books
Economic History
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Theory
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Popular Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| England
| Europe
| History
| Subjects
| Books
Look Inside Business Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
Look Inside History Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
Similar Items:
- John Maynard Keynes: 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman
ASIN: 0393300242 |
Average customer rating:
|
The Economics of Keynes in Historical Context: An Intellectual History of the General Theory
Michael Lawlor
Manufacturer: Palgrave Macmillan
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
Economic History
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Theory
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Popular Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Look Inside Business Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
ASIN: 0333977173
Release Date: 2007-01-23 |
Book Description
There have been a number of important, pioneering studies in the analysis of Keynes' philosophical writings, his work as a policy advisor, as well as biographies. What has not been attempted is a full-scale analysis of how the various parts of Keynes' most mature work in the General Theory can be understood in the context of the social thought, policy questions and economics literature that shaped his outlook on theoretical questions. This book fills that gap and is a significant addition to the literature on the most influential economist of the twentieth century.
Average customer rating:
- No new or original work on Keynes appears in this book except the essay by Hoover
|
The Cambridge Companion to Keynes (Cambridge Companions to Philosophy)
Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
General
| Popular Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Theory
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Philosophy
| Nonfiction
| Subjects
| Books
Modern
| Philosophy
| Nonfiction
| Subjects
| Books
Political
| Philosophy
| Nonfiction
| Subjects
| Books
Reference
| Philosophy
| Nonfiction
| Subjects
| Books
Look Inside Business Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
Qualifying Textbooks - Spring 2007
| Stores
| Books
Similar Items:
- The Cambridge Companion to Adam Smith (Cambridge Companions to Philosophy)
- The Cambridge Companion to Hayek (Cambridge Companions to Philosophy)
- Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics
- On Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations": A Philosophical Companion
- The Cambridge Companion to Atheism (Cambridge Companions to Philosophy)
ASIN: 052160060X |
Book Description
John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946) was the most important economist of the twentieth century. He was also a philosopher who wrote on ethics and the theory of probability and was a central figure in the Bloomsbury Group of writers and artists. In this volume contributors from a wide range of disciplines offer new interpretations of Keynes’s thought, explain the links between Keynes's philosophy and his economics, and place his work and Keynesianism - the economic theory, the principles of economic policy, and the political philosophy - in their historical context. Chapter topics include Keynes's philosophical engagement with G. E. Moore and Franz Brentano, his correspondence, the role of his General Theory in the creation of modern macroeconomics, and the many meanings of Keynesianism. New readers will find this the most convenient, accessible guide to Keynes currently available. Advanced students and specialists will find a conspectus of recent developments in the interpretation of Keynes.
Customer Reviews:
No new or original work on Keynes appears in this book except the essay by Hoover.......2006-07-02
This book is a collection of invited essays on Keynes edited by Bateman and Backhouse.All of the essays are based on the past work of the authors.For example,Peden repeats his previous work comparing and contrasting Keynes's view and the Treasury view about the causes of the Great Depression;Bateman and Backhouse,Gillies,Raffaelli, and Bateman repeat their claims that Keynes allegedly capitulated to Ramsey's devastating and annihilating intellectual attack on his logical theory of probability and became a follower either of Ramsey's approach or something called the intersubjective theory of probability invented by Gillies in 1990(See p.5,18,173,205-208).The same pattern appears in the papers by Leijonhufvud,Laidler,Klaes,etc..The only original research that appears in this volume is the paper by Hoover on Keynes's technical approach in his 1924 Tract on Monetary Reform.
The discussion of the role of mathematics and Keynes contained in the essay by Bateman and Backhouse is not original.They state the following: "His(Keynes's)model could(italicized)be interpreted in terms of his vision,but there was no necessity to do so"(2006,p.12;see also p.15).This argument is identical to the Feb.-March,1935 assessment of D.Robertson which Keynes rejected by pointing out to Robertson that his analysis had only one interpretation that was contained in a chapter dealing with the employment function(see Collected Writings JMK,Vol.13,p.514,1973).Chapter 20 of the General Theory is titled "The Employment Function".None of the essay authors deal with this chapter on which Keynes stated that "Everything turns on".(ibid.,p.520).None of the essay writers deal correctly with chapter 10 of the GT.Not a single essay deals with the mathematical result that if the mpc,the marginal propensity to spend on consumer goods,is 1-(1/k),then ,by definition,the mpi,the marginal propensity to spend on investment goods is equal to 1/k, which is the inverse of the investment multiplier,k.
The one article most in need of revision is the article by Gillies.Gillies bases his entire assessment of Keynes 's theory on the following ad hominem argument made by Ramsey: "...there really do not seem to be any such things as the probability relations he describes...I feel confident that this is not true(that people intuit or perceive a connection between statements of an inductive nature).I do not perceive them...I shrewdly suspect that others do not perceive them either.."(See Gillies discussion on pp.205-208).These are claims that need to be proven.Since Ramsey rejects inductive logic,he needs to supply a deductive proof to support his claims.Of course,neither Ramsey nor Gillies nor any other logician or philosopher has ever supplied such a deductive proof.
The major flaw in all of the essays dealing with probability is that they ignore Keynes's clear definition of probability contained in chapter 15 of the TP on p.160 which defines probabilities to be intervals with upper and lower limits and not the ordinal rankings or comparative approach to probability that Ramsey foisted on Keynes in two book reviews written in 1922 and 1926,respectively.Ramsey's claims about Keynes's " nonnumerical probability " not using any numbers except in very special circumstances is directly contradicted by Keynes definition as well as some thirteen problems worked out on pp.161-163 and 186-194 in 1921 in the A Treatise on Probability(TP).Unfortunately ,all of the essay writers in this book who discuss Keynes's views on probability rely exclusively on these two reviews,as well as a highly selective reading of chapter 3 of the TP that ignores the six statements made by Keynes about intervals(see TP,pp.22-24,28-29,31-32,and 35).
Average customer rating:
- Moggridge ignores all of Keynes's theoretical contributions
|
Maynard Keynes: An Economists' Biography
Donal Moggridge
Manufacturer: Routledge
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
General
| Biographies & Memoirs
| Subjects
| Books
Business
| Professionals & Academics
| Biographies & Memoirs
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Popular Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Theory
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Look Inside Biographies
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
Look Inside Business Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
ASIN: 0415127114 |
Book Description
John Maynard Keynes, the most influential economist of the twentieth century, also made a unique contribution to public affairs and to Britain's cultural life. In
Maynard Keynes, Donald Moggridge draws on an unrivalled knowledge of Keynes gained from twenty years of editing his papers. Fresh in its outlook and revealing in its scope, this is the definitive biography of Keynes.
Customer Reviews:
Moggridge ignores all of Keynes's theoretical contributions.......2004-10-24
Moggridge's(M) book on Keynes is similar in many respects to R.Skidelsky's three volume study of Keynes.Both give an excellent historical overview of the major events in Keynes's personal,professional,public and academic life.There are many interesting discussions of the interactions that occurred between Keynes and a host of famous people,politicians,philosophers and economists.The reader, who wants to buy a book on Keynes for his general library ,would do well to purchase this one volume study.On the other hand,M is not successfull in discussing and analyzing the many intellectual and scientific contributions that Keynes made to applied probability,statistics,decision theory and economics.A reader will be disappointed in this book if he wants a discussion of the intellectual heritage that Keynes bequeathed to humanity.The following is a list of the intellectual accomplishments of Keynes not mentioned by M.First,Keynes is the first scholar in history to propose an interval estimate approach for calculating an estimate of probability.Keynes gave a precise approximation technique based on the work of George Boole.These topics are covered in chapters 15 and 17 of the A Treatise on Probability(1921).Second, Keynes is the first scholar in history to provide a specific index to measure the weight of the evidence,w.w measures the completeness of the relevant ,potential evidence available to a decision maker in order to calculate an estimate of a probability.It is defined on the unit interval[0,1].Third, Keynes is the first scholar in history to specify a clearcut decision rule that incorporates non linear probability preferences and the weight(or ambiguity or uncertainty)of the evidence in his conventional coefficient of risk and weight,c.Fourth,Keynes is the first scholar in history to recognize the applied importance of Chebyshev's Inequality in specifying a lower bound to unreliable estimates based on misapplications of the normal probability distribution.Fifth,Keynes was one of the first to recognize the incorrect use of the normal probability distribution,both in the TP and in his debate with Tinbergen in 1939-1940 in the Economic Journal.These last two points still have not been understood by economists and financial analysts.Benoit Mandelbrot has presented overwhelming evidence that price movements in financial markets can't accurately be represented by a normal probability distribution.Like Tinbergen,economists keep preferring to be precisely wrong rather than generally right.Finally,Keynes specified a general theory of macroeconomics under conditions of both risk and uncertainty in his theory of effective demand presented in the GT in 1936.Letting w equal the money wage,p equalling the price level,w/p equalling the real wage,MPL equalling the marginal productivity of labor,MPC equalling the marginal propensity to spend on consumption goods,MPI equalling the marginal propensity to spend on investment goods(capital goods),Keynes derives the following:w/p=MPL/(MPC+MPI).This generalizes the classical and neoclassical theory that w/p=MPL.Classical and neoclassical theory(such as rational expectations,real business cycle theory,etc.)are special cases of Keynes's general theory that require MPC+MPI=1.Moggridge is advised to incorporate all of these intellectual accomplishments of Keynes in a revised edition.
Average customer rating:
- Treats mathematical probability as a limiting case of logical probability
- The best book published on the foundations of probability
|
A Treatise on Probability
John Maynard Keynes
Manufacturer: Cosimo Classics
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
General
| Popular Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Philosophy
| Nonfiction
| Subjects
| Books
Logic & Language
| Philosophy
| Nonfiction
| Subjects
| Books
Similar Items:
- The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (Great Minds Series)
- Risk, Uncertainty and Profit
- The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
- Essays in Persuasion
- Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
ASIN: 1596055308 |
Book Description
There is, first of all, the distinction between that part of our belief which is rational and that part which is not. If a man believes something for a reason which is preposterous or for no reason at all, and what he believes turns out to be true for some reason not known to him, he cannot be said to believe it rationally, although he believes it and it is in fact true. On the other hand, a man may rationally believe a proposition to be probable, when it is in fact false. -from Chapter II: Probability in Relation to the Theory of Knowledge" His fame as an economist aside, John Maynard Keynes may be best remembered for saying, "In the long run, we are all dead." That phrase may well be the most succinct expression of the theory of probability every uttered. For a longer explanation of the premise that underlies much of modern mathematics and science, Keynes's A Treatise on Probability is essential reading. First published in 1920, this is the foundational work of probability theory, which helped establish the author's enormous influence on modern economic and even political theories. Exploring aspects of randomness and chance, inductive reasoning and logical statistics, this is a work that belongs in the library of any interested in numbers and their application in the real world. AUTHOR BIO: British economist JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES (1883-1946) also wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919), The End of Laissez-Faire (1926), The Means to Prosperity (1933), and General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936).
Customer Reviews:
Treats mathematical probability as a limiting case of logical probability.......2006-09-18
In this path breaking contribution to the logic of probability,Keynes showed how to adapt the work of George Boole for the purpose of estimating probabilities.Keynes is the first scholar in history to explicitly emphasize the importance of interval estimates in decision making.For Keynes there are only two types of probability estimates,point estimates and interval estimates.Unfortunately,Keynes decided to call interval estimates " non-numerical "probabilities.His reasoning is really quite obvious.A precise estimate of probability used a single numeral for the point estimate.Therefore,an imprecise estimate of probability used two numerals to denote an interval(set).Thus, an interval estimate is not based on a single numeral but two. These types of probabilities are thus " non-numerical "because you are not using a single numeral.In 1922 and 1926,Frank Ramsey reviewed Keynes's book based on his reading of chapters 1-4 plus 3 pages from Part II and 4 pages from Part V.Keynes's discussion of non-numerical probabilities takes place in chapters 5,10,15 and 17.Keynes then applies his new approach to induction and analogy in chapters 20 and 22,using his concept of " finite probability " ,which applies to both precise ,numerical probabilities and imprecise, non-numerical probabilities.All of Keynes's discoveries ,however,were ignored by the ignorant Ramsey.It is unfortunate that the editorial foreword to the 1973 Collected Writings of JMK edition of the TP, written by Richard Braithwaite ,simply repeats all of the errors made by Ramsey in his reviews.Consider Braithwaite's paraphrase of Ramsey's argument that " On Keynes's theory it is something of a mystery why the probability relations should be governed by the probability calculus."(p.xx,1973).The answer is quite simple. First,the " non numerical " interval estimates will not be governed by the probability calculus.Second,numerical probability calculations,such as the blue-green taxi cab problem of Tversky and Kahneman,will only satisfy the probability calculus if the weight of the evidence,w,is equal to 1,where w is defined as an element on the unit interval between 0 and 1 and measures the relative completeness of the available evidence upon which the probability estimates are to be calculated.(To this day(2006)one can regularly read about Keynes's " strange,mysterious,unfathomable,undefined " non-numerical probabilities in literally hundreds of economics and philosophy journal articles and books that have been written about Keynes's approach to probability since the Ramsey reviews were first published 80 years ago.These reviews are still cited as " overwhelming " evidence that Keynes agreed that Ramsey's critique had completely demolished the entire structure of his logical approach to probability.Nothing could be further from the truth.Ramsey's reviews were so poor that Keynes and Bertrand Russell attempted to downplay their relevance so as to save Ramsey from being embarrassed in the academic community.)Keynes then showed that interval estimates,because they frequently overlap,would very likely also,in many cases,be nonmeasurable,noncomparable and/or nonrankable if a decision maker used such order preserving operators like " greater than or equal to " or "less than or equal to ".While this is quite obvious to any reader of Part II of the TP,it went completely over Ramsey's head. Keynes's second major advance was to create his "conventional coefficient of weight and risk", c=p/(1+q)[2w/(1+w)] in sections 7 and 8 of chapter 26 . The goal of the decision maker is to Maximize cA,where A is some outcome.This decision rule solves most of the paradoxes and anomalies that plague subjective expected utility theory.A major accomplishment made by Keynes in chapter 26 of the TP was to specify that the weight of the evidence variable,w,was defined on the unit interval [0,1].It would be forty years before Daniel Ellsberg would define his practically identical variable,rho,on the unit interval between 0 and 1 also,where rho measured the degree of confidence in the decision maker's information base.Since these two measures are one to one onto and isomorphic,Keynesian weight(uncertainty in the General Theory) and Ellsbergian ambiguity measure the same thing and are interchangeable.This means that Ellsberg's analysis can be applied when studying the GT and used to buttress Keynes's theory of liquidity preference in the GT.In Part 5 of this book ,Keynes showed how one could use Chebyshev's Inequality as a lower bound to the normal probability distributions overly precise and inaccurate point estimate . Part 5 of the Treatise also includes Keynes's advocacy of the Lexis Q test for stability of a statistical frequency[law of large numbers].It is this part of the TP that forms the basis,along with chapter 17,of Keynes's exchange with Tinbergen over the logical foundations of econometrics in the Economic Journal in 1939-1940.Keynes pointed out that ,in order to justify his assumption of normality,Tinbergen needed to apply the Lexis Q test.Tinbergen never applied either that test or the Chi- Square test for goodness of fit.This will then bring the reader back to Keynes's chapter 8 of the Treatise ,where he presents his own logical frequency interpretation of probability as a special case of his general logical approach to probability after criticizing Venn's particular version of a frequency approach.
The best book published on the foundations of probability.......2005-05-17
In this path breaking contribution to the logic of probability,Keynes showed how to adapt the work of George Boole for the purpose of estimating probabilities.Keynes is the first scholar in history to explicitly emphasize the importance of interval estimates in decision making.For Keynes there are only two types of probability estimates,point estimates and interval estimates.Unfortunately,Keynes decided to call interval estimates "non-numerical"probabilities.His reasoning is really quite obvious.A precise estimate of probability used a single numeral for the point estimate.Therefore,an imprecise estimate of probability used two numerals to denote an interval(set).Thus, an interval estimate is not based on a single numeral but two. These types of probabilities are thus "non-numerical"because you are not using a single numeral.In 1922 and 1926,Frank Ramsey reviewed Keynes's book based on his reading of chapters 1-4 plus 3 pages from Part two and 4 pages from Part five.Keynes's discussion of non-numerical probabilities takes place in chapters 5,10,15 and 17.Keynes then applies his new approach to induction and analogy in chapters 20 and 22,using his concept of "finite probability"which applies to both precise numerical probabilities and imprecise non-numerical probabilities.All of Keynes's discoveries ,however,were ignored by the ignorant Ramsey.(To this day(2005)one can regularly read about Keynes's "strange,mysterious,unfathomable,undefined"non-numerical probabilities in literally hundreds of economics and philosophy journal articlesthat are based primarily on Ramsey's reviews.These reviews are still cited as "overwhelming" evidence that Keynes agreed that Ramsey's critique had demolished the entire structure of his logical approach to probability.Nothing could be further from the truth.Ramsey's reviews were so poor that Keynes and Bertrand Russell attempted to downplay their relevance so as to save Ramsey from being embarrassed in the academic community.)Keynes then showed that interval estimates,because they overlap,would very likely also,in many cases,be noncomparable and/or nonrankable if a decision maker used such order preserving operators like"greater than or equal to"or "less than or equal to".While this is quite obvious,it went completely over Ramsey's head. Keynes's second major advance was to create his "conventional coefficient of weight and risk", c=p/(1+q)[2w/(1+w)]. The goal of the decision maker is to Maximize cA,where A is some outcome.This decision rule solves all of the paradoxes and anomalies that plague subjective expected utility theory.A major accomplishment made by Keynes in chapter 26 of the TP was to specify that the weight of the evidence variable,w,was defined on the unit interval [0,1].It would be forty years before Daniel Ellsberg would define his practically identical variable,rho,on the unit interval between 0 and 1 also,where rho measured the degree of confidence in the decision maker's information base.Since these two measures are one to one onto and isomorphic,Keynesian weight(uncertainty in the General Theory) and Ellsbergian ambiguity measure the same thing and are interchangeable.This means that Ellsberg's analysis can be applied when studying the GT and used to buttress Keynes's theory of liquidity preference in the GT.In Part 5 of this book ,Keynes showed how one could use Chebyshev's Inequality as a lower bound to the normal probability distributions overly precise point estimate . Part 5 of the Treatise also includes Keynes's advocacy of the Lexis Q test for stability of a statistical frequency[law of large numbers].It is this part of the TP that forms the basis,along with chapter 17,of Keynes's exchange with Tinbergen over the logical foundations of econometrics in the Economic Journal in 1939-1940.Keynes pointed out that ,in order to justify his assumption of normality,Tinbergen needed to apply the Lexis Q test.Tinbergen never applied either that test or the Chi- Square test for goodness of fit.This will then bring the reader back to Keynes's chapter 8 of the Treatise ,where he presents his own logical frequency interpretation of probability as a special case of his general logical approach to probability.
Books:
- Why the Bubble Burst: Us Stock Market Performance Since 1982 (New Directions in Modern Economics Series)
- Profits from Power: Readings in Protection Rent and Violence-Controlling Enterprises
- The Philosophy of Keynes' Economics
- Exchange Rate Chaos: Twenty-Five Years of Finance and Consumer Democracy
- Coping with City Growth during the British Industrial Revolution
- Rivalry : In Business, Science, among Nations
- Profits of Peace: The Political Economy of Anglo-German Appeasement
- Changing Values in Medieval Scotland : A Study of Prices, Money, and Weights and Measures
- The Corporation as Anomaly
- Economic Ideas and Government Policy: Contributions to Contemporary Economic History (Routledge Explorations in Economic History, 1)
Books