Books

Average customer rating:

The World is Your Oyster
Don't Let Your Ego Take You Down (with it)
Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse
Mixed bag
Fantastic book!

Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books)
Peter D. Schiff , and John Downes
Manufacturer: Wiley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes
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ASIN: 0470043601

Book Description

Praise for Crash Proof

"The dot-com implosion proves that we all need Peter Schiff's vision of investing.?His view is so global and so unique in its approach, and at a time when we all should be looking to crash-proof our portfolios, Schiff offers us this much-needed life-raft."
—Liz Claman, Cohost, CNBC Morning Call

"For those accustomed to America's economic dominance, Crash Proof is a frighteningly forthright wake-up call. But Peter Schiff is one Cassandra whose voice deserves your rapt attention. Devoid of the usual Wall Street spin, this frank and prophetic read will make you reconsider the very foundations on which your financial house is built."
—Jonathan Hoenig, Portfolio Manager, Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC and FOX News Channel analyst

"Schiff does an outstanding job of outlining the dangers to individual investors of the current economic environment and presents a plausible plan about how to deal with the risks."
—David W. Tice, Portfolio Manager, Prudent Bear Funds

"A sober assessment of the financial problems facing our country. Reading this book will prepare you for potential outcomes that Wall Street and the mainstream financial media are completely unaware of."
—Bill Fleckenstein, founder and President of Fleckenstein Capital and MSN.com Money columnist

Customer Reviews:

The World is Your Oyster.......2007-06-23

First, let me say that I am a small investor client of EuroPacific. Yes, I was a little annoyed by Peter's self-promotion. That said, I believe that Peter's global insight is rather sharp and tells the reader truths he/she may not want to hear. If you follow the cheersleaders of CNBC, and to some extent Jim Cramer, they continue to sell the notion to the public that the U.S. is still the major financial market/player on the planet. There is a shift of wealth going from the West to the East, and China and India to a lesser extent, are leading this transformation.

The industrial revolution came to the U.S. at the beginning of the 20th century, people left the farms and went to the cities for jobs. America became the manufacturing powerhouse of the world. The U.S. was the number one consumer of raw materials to fuel this transformation. We exported goods to all over the world. China's industrial revolution began about 10 to 15 years ago, and the U.S. is helping by sending them so much manufacturing business...and the cutting edge technology do do so to China. This has produced 300 million millionaires in China so far, which is the same number of people as the entire population of the U.S. China is the number one consumer of raw materials in the world, and has millions more people/workers/consumers leaving the farms for the cities. The Europeans do more trade with China today than they do with the U.S. Given this trade relationship and China's millions moving to the cities, China will need the U.S. less and less. China will become the world's next economic superpower in our lifetime, whether we like it or not.

The European markets are hot, as are those of Asia. Peter's candid truths about the U.S. dollar, global insight and experience about foreign securities will serve your family well. His stock choices are conservative and many pay dividends from 6-12%. He is the canary in the coal mine. If someone one week before the market crash of 1929 told us that the market would crash the following week and told us the reasons why and where to put your money, how many people do you think would have listened? Precious few.

I sold my condo in an old part of Phoenix a few months after the market peaked. I hadn't planned to sell my home after 2 1/2 years, but it had more than doubled. I thought that I would live there for 10 years at least. I knew from where I lived that no one in their right mind would pay more for it if I held on to it. I sold it and sent 95% of the proceeds to EuroPacific in July 2006. I have made additional deposits to my account since then and my portfolio has grown by about 28% and I'm rather pleased with this. I know this figure will fluctuate. I want someone smarter than myself, and I'm a smart guy, to help my retirement money grow, I'm 59. I can do domestic market research easily, but not so easily globally. I trust Peter with my economic future.

Getting back to Peter's assessment of our domestic situation and his global economic insights, he can be either wrong...or early. I believe that he is early.

Do yourself an inexpensive favor. Read this book. Let Peter challenge your long held beliefs. Then make an informed decision. The investing world has changed, dominated by the institutional investors, hedge funds and the huge investment banks. The retail investors, you and me, have few champions. Peter Schiff is one of a handful.

Don't Let Your Ego Take You Down (with it) .......2007-06-23

It goes without saying that many Americans, either secretly or openly, still believe they and their country are a veritable godsend to the planet. Even the country's ravenous consumer economy, made possible only by foreign lenders now, is forever cited in the mainstream media as evidence of how critically important the nation remains to the rest of the world (even though it can't pay the world back on its loans!) Fortunately, Peter Schiff sees this delusional self-flattery for what it is, and pulls no punches in vocalizing the hard truth, both in his book and in his business TV interviews. Although it isn't blatantly obvious, Peter's real mission seems to be more psychological than economic, as the facts he proffers speak for themselves, while resistance to them speaks much louder. It would seem The Great American Collapse, more than anything else, will be a collapse in the nation's overblown vanity, a painful collective disillusionment that may dwarf the accompanying economic unraveling by orders of magnitude. But, says Peter, you can do better. You can read the book, endure the shock to false pride, and safeguard yourself financially through the outlined recommendations. You need not let a self-destructive ego take you down with it. After all, Truth doesn't want your demise, just your eyes and ears. Give It a chance and let it save the Real you.

Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse.......2007-06-22

Well written and simple to read.
You better believe this and act now!!! Protect yourselves. Convert your non-income generating Fed-Reserve Notes assets into Wealth protecting assets such as foreign income generating assets and hard assets before your paper digits buy you nothing.

Mixed bag.......2007-06-03

I've probably read close to 100 investment related books over the last 20 years and have found they generally fall into 1 of 3 categories absolutely essential (about 5% of books), decent and contain some useful info (about 70%) and utterly worthless and potentially damaging to your wealth (about 25% of books). As you might expect, this book falls into the decent category.

I give the first half of the book 4 stars. Schiff does an admirable job laying the theoretical groundwork of the current state of affairs. He does a good job of making some potentially difficult material easy to understand. However, I take exception to his dogmatic belief that hyperinflation is the only possible way our economic problems will end. There are a lot of very smart people who happen to think deflation is a real threat and Schiff goes so far as to say that those proposing this view are knowingly lying to the public. I don't buy that.

Where this book runs into difficulty is in the second part where he makes his investment recommendations. I found this part utterly worthless and unfortunately, most people are buying this book for those recommendations and not the theories in part 1. I felt like I was watching an infomercial for his asset management firm, since he goes out his way to mention it a dozen times throughout the book. I don't expect to pay $30 for what amounts to a marketing piece for his firm.

Now, on to his specific recommendations. The author bases his strategy on safety first. His idea of saftey being dividend paying foreign stocks, gold and foreign currency. The idea being that the dollar is going down the tubes and you want to be out of anything dollar denominated. Ok, I can live with this last point, but why the heck would I want to be in foreign stocks or currency if he predicts that US consumption which has fueled global growth is about to disappear. If we aren't buying the product, who will? According to Schiff, it will be the Chinese etc themselves who will step in and keep the growth going. I doubt it. At least not on their wages which amount to a few dollars a day. The fact is, if the US stops consuming, there will be no stocks anywhere in the world to hide behind. At least not for a number of years after the fall out. I don't mind the gold recommendations. I think its prudent to have about 5% in this asset class.

Another head scratcher based on his safety first principle is the idea that we should leverage our home mortgage and I'm assuming all other non-adjustable debt to the longest terms possible under the assumption that we'll let hyperinflation pay off the debt for us. Really risky, especially if a deflationary scenario plays out. Bottom line, like any infomercial, listen to some of the build up for some basic ideas (Part 1 of the book) and then ignore the worthless sales pitch (Part 2)

Fantastic book!.......2007-06-02

A great book! If you live in the US or anywhere in the West it should be required reading!

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Average customer rating:

Don't insult my intelligence
Excellent
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Important and Useful Insight Obscured by Delivery
Not antiknowledge and antilibrary; pro-knowledge and belongs in libraries

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Manufacturer: Random House
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 1400063515
Release Date: 2007-04-17

Amazon.com

Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.

Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson

Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.

The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."

In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson

Book Description

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.

Customer Reviews:

Don't insult my intelligence.......2007-06-27

Taleb's concept is certainly not his: "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" is as old as the Greek philosophers. And is something anyone who studies science should already know. It's one of the classic "logical fallacies".

That natural systems very often do NOT follow Gaussian distribution is something anyone who has taken intro stats should know.

That non-linear systems are common; that positive feedback loops exist in nature; these things we know.

Serious students of economics, physics, chemistry, climate, or biology may sometimes view the world through bell-curve tinted glasses. So remind us. But don't insult our intelligence by combining lack of originality with insufferable arrogance.

Excellent.......2007-06-27

Haven't read a more interesting and more eye opening book than these two - Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan. Reading them changes the way one works, thinks and trades. Please read NOW!

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.......2007-06-27

This is a lovely little book for those of us who were not particularly gifted in, nor liked mathematics and logic in University, but are still curious about why improbable things will probably happen. The author writes in a clear and sometimes humorous way, inserting personal anecdotes and observations about life. His broad education and cultural background give his words a nice edge. A good black swan for your library.

Important and Useful Insight Obscured by Delivery.......2007-06-26

Taleb has an important but rather simple message to deliver. It can be summed up in three words: Rare events happen. That was the point of Fooled by Randomness (which is a better book), and it is the point here.

Once this main point is made (and it is irrefutable), there are any number of embellishments, examples, and explanations that can help the reader round out his or her understanding of the concept. This would be a 5-star book if the author had written it to help the reader understand the basic concept and its implications.

Instead, the book reads like an ego trip. His delivery is maddening. He seems to be filled with anger. The book viciously attacks many well-meaning, competent people in academia, finance, science, and other fields for no apparent reason, other than that they don't see (or agree with) his point.

For that reason, I found the book hard to read. Some reviewers have called it funny; I found no humor in it. Instead, what I found is an author who clearly thinks he is smarter than everyone else and allows that to get in the way of clarity. He seems to take joy in belittling those who "outrage" him by their stupidity. (Really, what kind of person gets "filled with rage" over others being unable to see an academic point?)

Another quality that makes this book hard to read is the deliberately opaque way that Taleb chooses to make many of his points. If there is a straightforward way or an obscure way to make a point, he consistently selects the obscure way...using unfamiliar references, saying "secundo" instead of "second," inventing a non-existent author to make a point about book sales rather than choosing a real-life example, and so on. Taleb seems to think such writing is "erudition" (a quality he clearly admires). I believe that it puts an unfortunate academic-style veil over the book.

I've learned from both of Taleb's books--Fooled by Randomness and this one. I've learned not only the main point--that rare events happen, and they happen more often than we usually expect--but I've also learned something about how not to write. Writing I most admire is deliberately written to be understood, not to get in the way of understanding.

Not antiknowledge and antilibrary; pro-knowledge and belongs in libraries.......2007-06-26

"The Black Swans" is a fascinating book that amasses a huge and eclectic amount of empirical evidence. I had fun reading it, and I read it all: front cover to backcover. My most favorite sections in descending order were Glossary, Notes, and Bibliography. Such a preference probably identifies me as Mediocristani (citizen of Mediocristan) by nationality. While I'm very glad to know of the existence of a much better-off land called Extremistan, I'm not convinced of the value of changing my citizenship - yet.

What I like about Extremistan is that citizens of this land value the randomness, rarity, and unpredictability of outliers, and the enormous influences that outliers have on the change and growth of everything important. The narrative and anecdotes of the book are amazing. There is really a basis for professional and personal growth here.

Very good books have always had two distinct effects on me. Some books are so good that all I can say is Wow. Others are so good that they make me want to write my own book - for or against. Reading "The Black Swans" has shown me a third effect that mixes the two. On one hand I'm wowed by the author's reflective and knowledgeable attention to things random and extreme. On the other hand the difference between the Extremistan and "Gaussistan" outlook on outliers is only a matter of emphasis and detail. It is not that Gaussians do not see the value of outliers (they do!), it is that apparently they understate the importance of outliers.

It is seems like Extremistani have overemphasized their case. The overemphasis leads me to another concern. The book misses the reinforced and mutual interdependence between Mediocristan and Extremistan. According to this book Albert Einstein (both the person and the idea) was a Black Swan - correct. However, as a Black Swan Einstein was not unrelated to his ordinary parentage, for example. Outsiders saw Einstein disassembling Newtonian physics, Einstein himself viewed Newton as a foundation for his new edifice. An outlier, of course; isolated outlier, doubtful.

The book also talks up "antiknowledge" and "antilibrary". That kind of talk is incomprehensible given the about of research that went into writing the book as evidenced by the amount of notes and bibliographic materials. What is the purpose of the book? Does the author truly expect his readers to not learn anything from the book? Am I really worse-off for having read this book? In this respect I wished the author followed his own counsel that it is both easier and funner to knock down things than to put them together.

Having said all that, I still recommend this book, with a caviat that it is not antiknowledge and antilibrary; it is pro-knowledge and belongs in libraries.

Amavilah, Author
Modeling Determinants of Income in Embedded Economies
ISBN: 1600210465

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them (Leadership for the Common Good)

Average customer rating:

On Target - Bullseye - Should have seen it coming
Predictably bad
Predictably OK
Updating the March of Folly
A New Way of Looking at the Future

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them (Leadership for the Common Good)
Max H. Bazerman , and Michael D. Watkins
Manufacturer: Harvard Business School Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 1591391784

Book Description

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs

This book shows why such “predictable surprises” put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before disaster strikes.

There is a universal fear factor surrounding this subject: that society and the workplace are filled with disasters in the making that we could prevent if we only knew what to look for. This book plays on that fear and offers a positive, proactive resolution to it.

Customer Reviews:

On Target - Bullseye - Should have seen it coming.......2005-10-07

Anyone who has worked for some sort of organization, government agency, business, university or whatever, will empathise with "Predictable Surprises" by Bazerman and Watkins. This book focuses on the early and late warning signs, the cover-ups, the denials, and the eventual consequences of failing to take action to avert disaster. I've been in far too many situations where I observed that the peple "in charge" (really??) were blindsided by their own limited vision to the realities of what was happening within their organizations.

There are two "Predictable Surprises" that weren't included. First, Hurricane Katrina and the aftermath in New Orleans. Anyone visiting that city and talking with one's professional compatriates could have seen coming what unfolded before our eyes. The warning signs and studies were out there and ignored. That's why those who had a reasonable level of education left town and paid attention to the evacuation notices.

The other predictable surprise that was missed was the sex abuse scandal in the Roman Catholic Church. I'm Protestant but know a lot of fine Roman Catholic people. I heard things as long ago as fifty years and knew then that this situation was going to explode in the public domain. "Predictable Surprises" provides the principals that explain why this particular surprise was kept under the radar so long.

An outstanding book that should be read by everyone working in the corporate world, a government agency, a university, the military, or a non-profit organization. Your life may depend on knowing what's in this book.

Predictably bad.......2005-06-14

A major shortcoming of Bazerman and Watkins' book is the failure to provide adequate evidence to support their arguments about what they call "predictable surprises", which they define as "an event or series of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences." Bazerman and Watkins build their case substantially on just two examples: aviation security failures leading to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and auditor independence concerns leading to the collapse of Enron and Arthur Anderson. Several other examples are discussed in less depth throughout the text, however many of these are not actually predictable surprises under the definition provided. For example, global warming is discussed a number of times; however global warming has been in public discussion since the 1930s, and today a substantial majority of people believe not only the concept of global warming but that current warming is man-made. By 2050, this subject will have been under study for 120 years and popular consensus will have been achieved for 50-60 years. This is certainly predictable, but hardly a surprise. The United States' looming crisis in entitlement spending also falls in this category.

Flaws exist in other anecdotal support as well. For example, Bazerman and Watkins cite aviation security failures as an occasion when overly discounting the future lead to a predictable surprise. Quick calculation based on figures provided in the book show that, using equal discount rates for the expected future cost of security and the future cost of disaster, even with a disaster probability as high as 10% for any given year, the airlines would be ahead on a cost basis. The total destruction of both World Trade Center towers and the massive ensuing death toll was not reasonably foreseeable by the airline industry; based on the typical passenger plan carrying 78 people, this was the equivalent of an absurd 41 simultaneous aircraft disasters! Given the cost of implementation and the low probability of such a large disaster, even at a full cost of nearly $50 billion, the airlines' decision to oppose security measures on a cost basis was reasonable. The full scope of this surprise was unlikely enough that it should not be termed "predictable."

Despite some good analysis of reasons predictable surprises occur and ways to avoid them, this book is critically weakened by its lack of evidence. Bazerman and Watkins try to make it stand largely on just the aviation security and auditor independence failures; however these are insufficient evidence for their broad analysis and conclusions, particularly given the weakness of those arguments provided. This book would be substantially more persuasive with more anecdotal support.

Predictably OK.......2005-05-11

In a world ruled by probability, all predictions eventually come true (no matter how impossible.) That said, ignoring the obvious can be disastrous, but the authors methods for prioritizing risk were disappointing.

Updating the March of Folly.......2005-02-23

The authors have found a memorable phrase to describe a depressingly common phenomenon - the occurrence of a disaster or failure that has been widely and often publicly predicted. The term `predictable surprise' will undoubtedly enter the managerial and political language.

They have provided a valuable analysis of why these predictable disasters occur and what can be done to prevent them (while recognizing that there are also such things as `unpredictable surprises' which can not be avoided through these processes).

The book is invaluable for the clear way in which it brings the elements together and for the vividness and immediacy of the examples chosen to illustrate the points. The result is a book that is very readable as well as being immediately useful, even if many of the points have also been made elsewhere by other authors. The book provides a template against which organizations can assess their defences against `predictable surprises', and I suspect that every organization will find gaps in its armour when it measures itself against the recommendations in the book.

The authors also use the book to mount a stinging attack on the failures of the American political system (and by extension those of other countries) and the need for fundamental reform. Their attack on the activities of the special interest groups and their direct responsibility for some of the worst disasters that the US has suffered is particularly pointed. One can only hope that the criticisms will be listened to and acted upon, and that politicians as well as business people will read and note them.

Throughout the book, the systemic, interconnected nature of the processes that lead to predictable surprises is very clear, but the authors do not, in my opinion, highlight the fact as strongly as they should. They do point out that depletion of international fisheries is a classic case of 'the tragedy of the commons', one of several archetypal forms of systems relationship, but virtually every example that the authors cite could well be illustrated with simple systems diagrams based on one or other of the classic 'systems archetypes'. Systemic issues require systemic solutions and the leverage for systemic change may be located well beyond the area of control of the immediate actors - another fact that shows up clearly in the course of the authors' examples.

It is probably no coincidence that I was strongly reminded of Barbara Tuchman's The March of Folly as I read the book. The perspective and coverage is different, but the themes of willful ignorance, willful inaction and willful pursuit of perceived short-term self interest as fundamental drivers of future disasters are common to both. If Tuchman were still alive, I would have confidently expected an analysis of Iraq to follow her masterful analysis of the Vietnam war, the American War of Independence and the drivers of the Reformation. In its own way, Predictable Surprises provides a contemporary update of the ways in which we continue the march of folly.

A New Way of Looking at the Future.......2004-11-19

Yes, we should have forseen 9/11, and Enron as well. This book rightfully points out that there were warning signs aplenty. But what does this really say of the future.

So I first turned to Chapter 10, Future Predictable Surprises. I have to admit, I was surprised. Their entries in this category: Campaign-Finance Reform; Auditor Independence; Global Depletion of Fish Stocks; Government Subsidies, particularly in agriculture; Global Warming; Ignoring Future Financial Obligations, medicaid, medicare, social security; Frequent Flyer Miles. Yup, those are all predictable disasters.

And if you brainstorm a while you can come up with a bunch of other predictable disasters: AIDS, Oil Running Out, Terriorists hitting a nuclear plant, or bombing the Old River Control Project in Louisiana, which would leave New Orleans and the hundreds of petro-chemical plants downstream high and dry, let along killing 15,000 or so people along the Atchafalaya river.

Then I got to thinking a bit further. It's not the specific disasters that they want to warn us of, that's our job. Their job is to discuss how to look at disasters and what to do to protect our companies or investments (sell petrochemicals). And at this they do a good job.

The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities

Average customer rating:

Excellent
Only because it's not a novel
Great for beginners
Excellent
Good Book

The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities
Bernard Baumohl
Manufacturer: Wharton School Publishing
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 013145501X

Book Description

Every day, stocks, bonds, and currencies bounce wildly in response to new economic indicators. Money managers obsess over those statistics, because they provide crucial clues about the future of the economy and the financial markets.

Now you can use these indicators to make smarter investment decisions, just like the professionals do.You don't need an economics degree, or a CPA... just this easy-to-use book.

Former TIME Magazine senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl has done the impossible: he's made economic indicators fascinating.

Using real-world examples and stories,Baumohl illuminates every U.S. and foreign indicator that matters.Where to find them.What they look like. What the insiders know about their track records. And exactly how to interpret them.

Whether you're an investor,broker, portfolio manager, researcher, journalist,or student, you'll find this book indispensable.Nobody can predict the future with certainty. But The Secrets of Economic Indicators will get you as close as humanly possible.

What the numbers really mean...

...to stocks, bonds, rates, currencies, and you

Ahead of the curve: spotting turning points

Calling recessions and recoveries in time to profit from them

Leading indicators: where's the economy really heading

Decoding initial unemployment claims, housing starts, the yield curve, and other predictors

Beyond the borders

Why foreign indicators are increasingly important—and how to use them

Making sense of indicators in conflict

What to do when the numbers disagree

Finding the data

Free web resources for the latest economic data

Download Description

Every day, stocks, bonds and currencies bounce around wildly in response to economic indicators like these. They're monitored obsessively by the world's leading money managers. Why? Because they provide crucial, subtle clues about the future of the market -- and of individual investments. Now you can profit from these indicators just like the professionals do. You don't need an economics degree, or a CPA -- just this easy-to-read book. In plain English, renowned economic journalist Bernard Baumohl helps you find the numbers, understand their deepest meanings, and use your knowledge to make fast, smart investment decisions. For each key indicator, Baumohl presents a sample release, insider's information on the indicator's track record, and step-by-step instructions for decoding it. Baumohl covers both US indicators and the foreign indicators that are becoming increasingly important to investors. He answers key questions like: Which indicators are most likely to affect my personal investments or business? How does each indicator affect interest rates and bond prices? Stock prices? The value of the dollar? And what can these reports tell me where the economy's really heading?

Customer Reviews:

Excellent.......2007-05-20

Great book to guide and teach the in's and out's of the economic reports.

Only because it's not a novel.......2007-03-08

I'm rating it 4 stars instead of 5 only because it's not action packed :) The subject of this book would normally be extremely boring and academic, but the author puts it so well that you actually want to continue reading. I'm in the Finance industry and it was still so valuable, because you learn from the indicators from hearing about them. But the information in this book sometimes made me understand better how the economy works, and how news of economic indicators affect my investment portfolios.

Great for beginners.......2007-01-11

It is a great book for those trying to understand financial news, after reading this I now do understannd what's going on. You don't have to read it entirely, you can just find today's economics released news, go to the book section related to the indicator you just heard of and that's it.

Excellent.......2006-08-06

There is so much information in this book a review need only be brief. "The Secrets of Economic Indicators" has the most accurate and concise definitions for terms, indicators, indexes, and general information about them than most other books on this topic. All of the contact information on these agencies and groups are provided. The brilliance in this book is its a) organization b) succinctness c) writing style. Written to point, and for the layperson. Easy reading.

Many terms that you hear and don't hear on financial channels and newspapers are provided with definitions. Including the weight analysts place on these specific terms, numbers, and indexes. Some are more important and relevant than others. What do Leading Indicators mean? Which ones tell more than the others? And, what does this mean for someone who's investing, or thinking of investing?
Are we about to turn a corner for better or worse? Domestic to International. Japan, Germany, China, and Brazil for example.

Here are the basic introduction backgrounds for most reports and surveys:

What is it:
News Release on the Internet:
Home Web Address:
Release Time:
Frequency:
Source:
Revisions:

Why Is It important:
How Is It Computed:
Tables:
Market Impact:
-Bonds
-Stocks
-Dollar

So what is the "Value of Manufacturer Inventories for Industry Groups?" Find out it in this book. What is included in Index of Lagging Indicators. Who (what people), are included in the Coincident Indicators? Critical to these reports is the "Market Impact." What impact does a report have? Do "Factory Orders" have on the financial markets? Not much.

Anyone can use this book. Students, investors, teachers, or someone who wants to know about what these reports mean. This is the most informative and the best written I've come across. It'll never become outdated.

Good Book.......2006-06-26

I used this book for a course at school and i coupled it to econoday.com and found the compbination of the two resources an excellent way to understand the real world of business.

Interest Rate Models - Theory and Practice: With Smile, Inflation and Credit (Springer Finance)

Average customer rating:

Best book on interest rate models
The best book I have read on the subject
New stuff and nice overview: hard to beat!
Nicely written overview of interest rate models
Well written and useful book

Interest Rate Models - Theory and Practice: With Smile, Inflation and Credit (Springer Finance)
Damiano Brigo , and Fabio Mercurio
Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Similar Items:

The Volatility Surface: A Practitioner's Guide (Wiley Finance)
Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Engineering (Stochastic Modelling and Applied Probability)
Volatility and Correlation: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox (Wiley Finance)
Modern Pricing of Interest-Rate Derivatives: The LIBOR Market Model and Beyond
Stochastic Calculus for Finance II: Continuous-Time Models (Springer Finance)

ASIN: 3540221492

Book Description

The 2nd edition of this successful book has several new features. The calibration discussion of the basic LIBOR market model has been enriched considerably, with an analysis of the impact of the swaptions interpolation technique and of the exogenous instantaneous correlation on the calibration outputs. A discussion of historical estimation of the instantaneous correlation matrix and of rank reduction has been added, and a LIBOR-model consistent swaption-volatility interpolation technique has been introduced.

The old sections devoted to the smile issue in the LIBOR market model have been enlarged into several new chapters. New sections on local-volatility dynamics, and on stochastic volatility models have been added, with a thorough treatment of the recently developed uncertain-volatility approach. Examples of calibrations to real market data are now considered.

The fast-growing interest for hybrid products has led to new chapters. A special focus here is devoted to the pricing of inflation-linked derivatives.

The three final new chapters of this second edition are devoted to credit. Since Credit Derivatives are increasingly fundamental, and since in the reduced-form modeling framework much of the technique involved is analogous to interest-rate modeling, Credit Derivatives -- mostly Credit Default Swaps (CDS), CDS Options and Constant Maturity CDS - are discussed, building on the basic short rate-models and market models introduced earlier for the default-free market. Counterparty risk in interest rate payoff valuation is also considered, motivated by the recent Basel II framework developments.

Customer Reviews:

Best book on interest rate models.......2002-12-14

This is the best book available on interest rate models. Very detailed. Much more focused and readable than Rebonato's book. More pragmatic and explicit than Musiela and Rutkowski. Not as theoretical as Hunt and Kennedy. James and Webber also looks very good, but I'm not that familiar with it. All other books have only bits and pieces on interest rates.

The best book I have read on the subject.......2002-05-06

With all the due respect to the other authors I would say that if one is interested in a good theoretical book whihc is also good on the implementation side then the book of Brigo and Mercurion is definetly the best book I have ever read on the subject.

Anyone interested in implementing the LMM/BGM/MSS model in practice is well advised to read it.

I would just say that this is certainly a must have in the field.

New stuff and nice overview: hard to beat!.......2002-01-17

In the late nineties I went through Brigo's innovative work on stochastic nonlinear filtering with differential geometry techniques. I was favorably impressed by results and style, particularly in his dissertation and in his 'geometry in present day science' very readable overview. Interesting results are found and nicely told with accurate - but not pointlessly complicated - advanced mathematics for the problems at hand, I reasoned.

I've followed a similar path from control to finance, and having worked with interest rate models, I couldn't help but order this Brigo-Mercurio book. I had high expectations 'cause these two guys are working in a bank on the real thing.

Sure enough I'm not disappointed.

1-factor models are handled with great care, a ton of formulas and recipes are given. I've never seen this kind of analysis of pricing with Gaussian 1-f models. The new upgrade of the CIR model is interesting and accurate. "CIR++" is now my favorite 1-f model. I like the treatment of lognormal 1-f models and the explanation of Monte Carlo and trees -- the flow-chart for Bermudan swaptions is crystal clear! Plots of market implied structures and volatility calibration are useful additions.

The chapter on 2-f extensions has one of the best discussions on volatility, and two tons of useful formulas/recipes. Two dimensional trees!

The HJM chapter size is OK. I agree - the useful models embedded in HJM are short rate models and market models.

Market models - these three chapters alone are worth the book. You'll find yourself nodding as you read the guided tour. They make it look easy all the time. The exposition is focused, clear, intuitive, detailed. There's also new stuff, just check the calibration discussion! Smile modeling begins with a brilliant tour and ends with Brigo-Mercurio's new approach - the mixing dynamics - deserving a whole chapter if expanded.

The detailed explanation on products is a much welcome original addition. Cross currency derivatives!

Quotes - as in Brigo's old work - are a pleasant diversion while reading. The 500 and more pages are a treat given the competitive price.

Still there's room for improvements - more "CIR2++"! Something on 3-f models. Historical estimation of the correlation matrix and low-rank optimized approximations. Expand smile modeling! More hedging. Something on structured products. Cross currency libor model. chapter 9 - other interest rate models - sounds out of place and can be suppressed for other things.

This book rings true and has useful teachings for students, academics and practitioners. Although it requires some background in stochastic calculus, it's hard to beat on the pricing front. Kudos to Brigo and Mercurio! It only harms there aren't enough books like this.

Nicely written overview of interest rate models.......2001-12-15

This recent book, written by two Italian "quants" Mercurio & Brigo, gives a nice and accessible overview of interest rate models which is a compromise between the practitioner viewpoint, expressed for ex. in Rebonato's book "Interet Rate option models"
and the theoretical viewpoint such as the one in Musiela & Rutkowski.
The authors, themselves PhDs in quantitative finance/ applied maths, wrote this book while working as quants in an Italian bank and this first hand contact with the market gave them a
practical view on the subject which markes this book very interesting.

The book contains a "rational" catalogue of models used in practice ( as opposed to models which are impossible to implement!).

In contrast with academic books on interest rate modeling which deal with HJM formulation, there is a lot of emphasis here on LIBOR and Swap market models
(BGM -Jamshidian models) which reflects the current market practice. This is a positive point since there are not many books with details on implementing and using these "market models".

Part II: Interest rate models in practice is particularly useful because it deals with implementation and calibration which, as any practitioner knows, are important and usually delicate issues.
However calibration issues are dealt with somewhat lightly, especially recent developments on modeling cap/swaption smiles
are not included here.

This book can also be used for a graduate level/PhD course on interest rate models.

There are a lot of numerical examples in the book and mathematics is kept to the necessary level while keeping the
approach both rigorous and understandable.

Overall, it is one of the best books written on the subject.
I highly recommend it to PhD students, quants and researchers interested in this field.

Well written and useful book.......2001-11-04

In my humble opinion, this is the best book on Interest Rate modeling out there. The writing style is clear and focused and the appendices are fantastic. The book is rigorous but someone with some background in Stochastic Calculus will find it easy to follow. If you need refresher, dont worry the authors have you covered, see the appendix on Stochastic Calculus. Not an introductory book. Very exciting book.

Mastering Elliot Wave: Presenting the Neely Method: The First Scientific, Objective Approach to Market Forecasting with the Elliott Wave Theory (version 2)

Average customer rating:

Loads of great knowledge, but hard, hard work!
Not for the majority.
excellent style
very difficult
like learning to ride a bike

Mastering Elliot Wave: Presenting the Neely Method: The First Scientific, Objective Approach to Market Forecasting with the Elliott Wave Theory (version 2)
Glenn Neely , and Eric Hall
Manufacturer: Windsor Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Similar Items:

Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably
Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior (Wiley Trading Advantage)
How to Identify High Profit Elliott Wave Trades in Real-Time
Fibonacci Applications and Strategies for Traders
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (Wiley Trading)

ASIN: 0930233441

Customer Reviews:

Loads of great knowledge, but hard, hard work!.......2007-06-01

I read this book a couple of years ago, and found it fascinating and highly detailed. I imagine that for some very technically minded people this is something they can really get their teeth into and enjoy. But for simple folk like me, it was just too much, and I found much simpler methods to interpret Elliott waves that didn't take half as much time or knowledge. So, I give it a 3 star rating as its brilliance is somewhat dampened by its complexity.

Not for the majority........2007-02-20

This book is very complictated. One might have a chance if this book was treated as textbook and offered in a university over a semester long class, taking each chapter apart with live examples.
Other reviews mention that it takes years to master this method.I somewhat agree. The rules of logic are not clear and that is mainly because if the autor wanted to go to great lenght to explain everything this book would be around 2000 to 3000 pages. So, you gonna have to figure it out on your own and that will take you a lot of time!
Get an Elliot Wave Charting software you'll save yourself a lot of headache and time.

excellent style.......2006-08-17

Books concerning Elliot Wave in Taiwan, no matter it is a translation version or the texts used by many teachers in teaching technical analysis, never have the style that
Mr. Glenn Neely has in his book. I must say that this book
expresses the topics in a concise, step-by-step and to-the-point way, it's a great book that I've ever had; no book can exceed its excellence. If possible, grant me the right to translate it here in Taiwan.

very difficult.......2006-06-30

Very hard to understand, if you can read, understand and enjoy this book at all you could probably give the boys a hand in Egypt with the Hieroglyphics ........If you enjoy scientology well this one's for you!!!!!!!!!!!

like learning to ride a bike.......2006-04-22

You really don't need this level of detail for Elliot wave trading to increase your P&L. Like any other trading systems, elliot waves mostly work except when it doesn't. Without years of experience and gains and losses you won't have the confidence to make a huge P&L. Buy a simpler book unless you are really into Elliot Waves. Enjoy the third waves.

Average customer rating:

great start for newbies
Very Comprehensive in a Text Format
This is a great book
Incredible book on useless knowledge
An excellent book whoever wants to learn the candle patterns

The Candlestick Course
Steve Nison , and Marketplace Books
Manufacturer: Wiley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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Similar Items:

Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, Second Edition
Beyond Candlesticks: New Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed (Wiley Finance)
Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (Wiley Trading)
Come Into My Trading Room: A Complete Guide to Trading

ASIN: 0471227285

Book Description

Expert instruction on the practical applications of candlestick charting

Candlestick charting is more popular than ever before, with a legion of new traders and investors being introduced to the concept by some of today’s hottest investment gurus. Having introduced the candlestick technique to the West through two of his bestselling books, Steve Nison is regarded as a luminary in the field of candlestick charting. In his new venture, The Candlestick Course, Nison explains patterns of varying complexity and tests the reader’s knowledge with quizzes, Q&As, and intensive examples. In accessible and easy-to-understand language, this book offers expert instruction on the practical applications of candlestick charting to give every level of investor a complete understanding of this proven, profitable, and time-tested investing technique. Straightforward answers quickly clarify this easy-to-use charting method. This guide will allow readers to recognize and implement various candlestick patterns and lines in today’s real-world trading environment–giving them a noticeable edge in their trading activities

Download Description

Expert instruction on the practical applications of candlestick charting

Customer Reviews:

great start for newbies.......2007-06-27

Since I becmae interested in trading stocks in October of 2006 this was the first book that I purchased dealing with technical analysis and charts. I could not be more happy with my choice. The quizes at the end of each chapter help to cement the new information into your memory. Even though my strategies have "evolved" beyond looking through charts solely for candlestick patterns, they are still an invaluable tool and can provide great insight. I highly recommend this book.

Very Comprehensive in a Text Format.......2007-02-13

I really liked the fact that this was in a text format with questions as well as answers provided. The title says "Course" and I believe that is exactly what it is. It provides a lot of detail in such a short span of just over 200 pages. The question and answer format really helps to cement the content. As other reviewers have indicated, there was a lot of page turning back and forth to find the right chart to go with the right question but there are plenty of charts to support the material provided. I found it was just what I was looking for as a formal introduction to candlesticks from someone definitely in the know.

Happy trading!

This is a great book.......2006-10-01

This is a great book for one person - Steve Nison. :)

Incredible book on useless knowledge.......2005-11-03

This book will provide you everything you mite need on something useless like Japanese Candlesticks. Nisson can show thousands of examples of how they "predicted" a change in trend but he won't show the other thousand times in which they didn't work. They are too random to be taken seriously. An Eight Ball or throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal can show the same results.

I always hear from Candlestickers that this is a technique that has been in practice for more than 300 years, I always answer that Tarot Cards have been used since long before providing the same predictive value: NONE!!!

An excellent book whoever wants to learn the candle patterns.......2005-08-31

I have found this book very informative. I didn't know a lot about the candle charting. Very easy to follow through the concepts the author has dicussed. I would encourage any trader to take a look at this book. It really tells you about the market psychology. Towards the end, one chapter goes through all the concepts the author covers in the previous chapters to refresh the concepts you have just learned. Remember, candle charting is just one of the techniques to mix up with other technical indicators. It helps me a lot about the understanding of the varous candle patterns.

The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It

Average customer rating:

Excellent Read
Pretty interesting read
Apocalypse maybe!
A WARNING FOR THE USA , UK AND THE WORLD
A CONCISE, EASY TO UNDERSTAND, BLUNT WARNING

The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It
Daniel A. Arnold
Manufacturer: Vorago-US
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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The Second Great Depression
Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books)

ASIN: 159196153X

Book Description

The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming depression of historically unprecedented magnitude. It will be much worse than the 1930s, beginning perhaps as early as 2009-2010, and last up to thirteen years. Centered on hard fact demographics, the book boldly claims that the data presented are so irrefutable, that the outcome predicted by the book is equally as irrefutable. The compelling proof presented accurately accounts for the detailed trend of the economy from 1920 to today (something never before accomplished), and projects out to 2030 in detail. The book is very easy to read and understand, and requires no prior knowledge of economics. Down to earth things the average person can do to prepare for what is coming are covered. A summary of the catastrophic domestic social and international consequences is offered.

2006 Update: In late 2002 when this book was published, in addition to the massive depression beginning towards the end of the decade, it forecast:
1. The economy, as reflected by the DJIA, would resume its upwards march in late 2002 or 2003. This is exactly what happened.
2. The DJIA would have a snap-back to 13,000 to 14,000 and the FTSE to 6,000 to 7,000 by 2004, but delayed possibly by wars/politics/terrorism/scandals. This is exactly what has happened. Although still delayed from the full snap-back for the reasons described, the DJIA is now over 12,000 and the FTSE is over 6,000.
3. The inflation adjusted DJIA returns from 2003 to 2012 would average 7% to 8%. So far, with the delayed full snap-back, inflation adjusted DJIA returns have averaged a more modest 4%, as would be expected.
4. Interest rates would increase from 2003 onwards. This is exactly what has happened.

Customer Reviews:

Excellent Read.......2007-05-14

Pros:
1. Brief: to the point, no fluff book(let)
2. Logical: Numbers support theory all along
3. Simple: Easy to understand
4. Value: Could save your shirt

Cons:
1. May sound too negative
2. May not consider all factors into forecasting

Pretty interesting read.......2007-05-12

This book and the argument that it lays out is pretty eye-opening. It shows you, through logical argument, how the demographics of our country will impact our coming future economic health. With these baby-boomers greying and falling from their peak spending years, our country will experience a downshift that will really challenge our concept of prosperity... A must read!

Apocalypse maybe!.......2007-01-15

This book, written specifically for citizens of the US and the UK, is one of the most sobering I have ever read. To the layman at least, it appears to be argued logically enough, the basic idea being that in the western economies the spending of individuals constitute the lion's share of GDP. In the next few years some 100m baby boomers in the US will start to leave the highest spending age group (45-54). As people nearing retirement tend to reduce their spending and start to withdraw their savings from more risky investments such as the stock market, this will cause a depression even deeper than the 1930s and stock markets to dive. The book forecasts that some 30m may become unemployed in the US alone. (A similar picture emerges in Japan though the age band is lower.) Almost every major stock market move in the last century or so can be accounted for by such demographics. These apocalyptic events are forecast to happen any time from 2009-2013 and it is recommended people be out of the stock markets by 2010 at the latest. The depression may last to the mid 2020s.
I just wonder how globalisation may affect the situation, both in terms of increased exposure of western companies to Asian markets and the vast numbers of increasingly wealthy Asian middle class who might invest some of their spare cash (and there may be an awful lot of it) in foreign markets. It must have been somewhat difficult for western individuals to invest directly in Asian markets, and vice versa, even in 1987 but in 1929 it must have been all but impossible.
I cannot agree either with some of the steps recommended to protect oneself either. If currencies weaken then treasury bonds may not quite be the saviour they are portrayed. The traditional safe havens in times of turmoil - precious metals such as gold and silver - are not even mentioned. This may be because they are traditionally associated with inflation. However, they also come into their own in times of currency crises and "funny money" i.e. when the money supply threatens hyper-inflation. Investing in foreign stock markets such as India and China, nations which should continue to grow strongly for the foreseeable future surely should also be considered. With such strong growth in Asia, I find it difficult to believe another of the book's predictions which is that the oil price may possibly fall as low as $5 a barrel!
I consider this book - and others like it - to be a warning as to what might happen rather than what will. Nevertheless, if it prompts individuals to review their investments and to diversify accordingly it will be no bad thing. I just fear so many people may be so indebted for years to come that they won't be able to.

A WARNING FOR THE USA , UK AND THE WORLD.......2007-01-12

I believe this should be on every aware person's desk because Daniel A. Arnold offers a summary of what we ( consumers, merchants, investors, miserable wretches) need to know in the How Not to Sink Financially Department. It would appear that sensitive persons already know too well that there is a giant problem in America (deficit spending, personal credit cards, individual/state/corporate debt, a general "We will worry about that, tomorrow"). This is the "thinking" among those who should know better. The attitude or I should say baseless emotion is a red flag. How we can preserve our legitimate plans for tomorrow, covered in this special chapter, is what I see as Dan Arnold's thurst: A forward-look. The straight-forward no-nonsense language and presentation gives a busy person a balm of reading these instructions from a knowledgeable author who does not talk down to the reader.
Above is referring to what I believe to be the best chapter. It is entitled "What On Earth Can you Do?"

A CONCISE, EASY TO UNDERSTAND, BLUNT WARNING.......2006-11-09

Like most reviewers, I found this brief book to be a highly believable warning of the coming huge depression. How can you argue with a thesis that accounts for the US economy's ups and downs in detail for nearly a century!! Unlike the few, (like Special K below), who completely miss the key message, IT IS DEMOGRAPHICS that controls everything. Any economist will tell you that 70% of GDP is simply us (we are the demographics) spending our paychecks and, as Arnold points out, it's more like 90% when we add the government's spending of our taxes which they take from our paychecks. Arnold's thesis is a better developed version of noted economist Dent's theory that specific demographics always control where the economy is going. It's not really theory anymore - it's plain commonsense, which is what comes out in Arnold's book. Dent also predicts a massive "Mother of all Depressions" starting around 2010. Special K and his ilk, who are quite happy I'm sure to (correctly) attribute the coming Social Security crisis solely to demographics but want to insist that the economy in general cannot possibly be, are the ones that are going to lose everything in what's coming. Go read Arnold to understand (concisely WITHOUT 200 extra pages of added irrelevant "fluff") that demographics is really all that counts - and why. My God, he even shows how the Japanese near depression from 1990 to 2003 was caused by exactly the same demographic data within Japan. What more do you want? Read it.

Active Portfolio Management: A Quantitative Approach for Producing Superior Returns and Selecting Superior Returns and Controlling Risk

Average customer rating:

Practical approach and mathematically rigorous at the same time
Theoretical framework with no practical examples.
This is the seminal text for Quantitative Finance
Very boring and dry
What could have been explained in 50 pages...

Active Portfolio Management: A Quantitative Approach for Producing Superior Returns and Selecting Superior Returns and Controlling Risk
Richard C. Grinold , and Ronald N. Kahn
Manufacturer: McGraw-Hill
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0070248826

Book Description

"This new edition of Active Portfolio Management continues the standard of excellence established in the first edition, with new and clear insights to help investment professionals."

-William E. Jacques, Partner and Chief Investment Officer, Martingale Asset Management.

"Active Portfolio Management offers investors an opportunity to better understand the balance between manager skill and portfolio risk. Both fundamental and quantitative investment managers will benefit from studying this updated edition by Grinold and Kahn."

-Scott Stewart, Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Select Equity ® Discipline

Co-Manager, Fidelity Freedom ® Funds.

"This Second edition will not remain on the shelf, but will be continually referenced by both novice and expert. There is a substantial expansion in both depth and breadth on the original. It clearly and concisely explains all aspects of the foundations and the latest thinking in active portfolio management."

-Eric N. Remole, Managing Director, Head of Global Structured Equity, Credit Suisse Asset Management.

Mathematically rigorous and meticulously organized, Active Portfolio Management broke new ground when it first became available to investment managers in 1994. By outlining an innovative process to uncover raw signals of asset returns, develop them into refined forecasts, then use those forecasts to construct portfolios of exceptional return and minimal risk, i.e., portfolios that consistently beat the market, this hallmark book helped thousands of investment managers. Active Portfolio Management, Second Edition, now sets the bar even higher. Like its predecessor, this volume details how to apply economics, econometrics, and operations research to solving practical investment problems, and uncovering superior profit opportunities. It outlines an active management framework that begins with a benchmark portfolio, then defines exceptional returns as they relate to that benchmark. Beyond the comprehensive treatment of the active management process covered previously, this new edition expands to cover asset allocation, long/short investing, information horizons, and other topics relevant today. It revisits a number of discussions from the first edition, shedding new light on some of today's most pressing issues, including risk, dispersion, market impact, and performance analysis, while providing empirical evidence where appropriate. The result is an updated, comprehensive set of strategic concepts and rules of thumb for guiding the process of-and increasing the profits from-active investment management.

Customer Reviews:

Practical approach and mathematically rigorous at the same time.......2006-02-01

Excellent book for whom is looking for a practical approach that at the same time is presented through a rigorous mathematical methodology. The book is absolutely superior over the academic textbooks that usually limit themselves to CAPM and efficient market theory. Grinold and Kahn go much forward and at the same time had managed to clearly and meticulously show the CAPM model, its limitations and the more sophisticated tools developed from it. Beside of showing the active way of managing a portfolio, the serious mathematical presentations through which the different theories such as CAPM are described are very convincing of how difficult it could be to beat the market.

Theoretical framework with no practical examples........2005-01-20

There is important information in this book but most of us need to see numerical examples to reinforce theoretical concepts. This book really comes up short in this area. It provides some discussion with the formulas/equations it presents but is very incomplete in terms of worked out examples. Yes, including worked out examples might might mean a book three times as long, but the book would then be many, many times more useful to practitioners.

As it currently stands the book can only benefit the super-genius-theoretical types who do not need to see examples to understand OR someone who ALREADY really understands the concepts.

The book rather frequently presents variables or constants without explicitly defining them for the reader (it assumes we know what they mean from the accompanying discussion).

The book gives exercises, but without answers what good are these?

The one thing the book does is make you realize there is a lot you do not know. You can find ideas in portfolio management that exist by reading this book but if you are at all like me you are going to have to look elsewhere for the answers. I have had better luck with Google searches for stuff like Style Analysis.

The book shows how smart the authors are: they know stuff that must of us do not. Unfortunately this is the feeling I get as I read sections of their book. They intend to keep it this way. Bottom line: the book fails to bridge the gap between theory and practice.

This is the seminal text for Quantitative Finance.......2004-11-11

If you work for one of the top alpha quant shops (Barclays, Goldman, etc.), this text is a the proverbial must read. These are the guys that essentially invented quantitative finance in its modern form, building upon the [only somewhat applicable] concepts of Sharpe and Rosenberg and demonstrating how they can be harnassed to drive alpha. Anybody who has given this text a poor review obviously doesn't work in quantitative finance (chances are they're merely stock-pickers). If you want to understand how to drive alpha and beat the market, this text goes a lot further than explaining the simple concepts of information ratio and tracking error; instead, this book touches on the beauty of multi-factor models and covariance risk management.

Very boring and dry.......2004-10-05

This book is a funny phenomenon in itself: it seems that every portfolio manager keeps a copy on her desk, but nobody I've talked to likes the book, or has even really read it. I read it and had to struggle hard to go from one page to the next. It's one of the WORST books I've ever read in any field. The book attempts to give the reader a comprehensive overview of the portfolio management discipline. Unfortunately, it's extremely dry, to the point of boring the reader to death. A lot of pages are also wasted on topics of dubious value, while important subjects like global management is treated lightly. I highly recommend against this book. It's a waste of money.

What could have been explained in 50 pages..........2001-10-24

Grinhold and Kahn's concept of the Information Ratio being dependant on skill (i.e. the correlation between expected outperformance and real outperformance) and sqrt. breath (i.e. the number of securities a manager follows and the number of times he rebalances his portfolio) is theoretically excellent. However, in the real world these correlations and even breath are hard to measure and mostly propriatary to the manager. Yet G&K go on for 500 pages on quantitive techniques that might be interesting for those with a PhD in Risk Management.

For the average (practical) person interested in portfolio management this book is way too academic, using some 10 Greek letters and Cov, Std per page (and I'm not even talking about the technical appendices), making it very hard to read and comprehend.

Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior (Wiley Trading Advantage)
Average customer rating:

Prechter & elliott wave international

Amazing

The landmark book that sparked my love for financial markets as a child

No delivery

Subjective and unconvincing

Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior (Wiley Trading Advantage)
A.J. Frost , and Robert R., Jr. Prechter
Manufacturer: Wiley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0471988499

Book Description

"This is a definitive, excellent book on Elliott, and I recommend it to all who have an interest in the Wave Principle." Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters
"Gold and Silver Today wholeheartedly endorses this book. It is the definitive work on a scientific wave theory of human experience. If you are interested in technical or wave analysis, it should be required reading." Gold & Silver Today
"This book is extremely well done. It is clear, brief and bold....by far the most useful and comprehensive for both the beginner and the veteran." William Dilanni, Wellington Mgmt. Co.
"An outstanding job...I don't think a better basic handbook of Elliott Wave theory could be written." Donald J. Hoppe, Business and Investment Analysis
"...A top-drawer reference for serious technical analysts....all the nuts and bolts necessary to do their own Elliott Wave assembly." Futures Magazine
"Chapter Three is the best description of Fibonacci numbers we've seen in print and that alone is worth the price of the book." Janes Dines, The Dines Letter
"In a third of a lifetime in this business, this was the first time I really understood Elliott, and this is certainly the first book on Elliott that I could recommend. All the methods that Prechter has used so successfully are fully described in this book." The Professional Investor
"Elliott Wave Principle is such an important, fascinating, even mind-bending work, we are convinced that it should be read by and and every serious student of the market, be they fundamentalist or technician, dealing in stocks, bonds or commodities." Market Decisions
"Even allowing for minor stumbles, that 1978 prediction must go down as the most remarkable stick market prediction of all time." James W. Cowan, Monitor Money Review
Recipient of the Technical Analysis Association's Award of Excellence

Customer Reviews:

Prechter & elliott wave international .......2007-04-26

Prechters view is markets peaked in wave 5 in year 2000.
Never called the bottom in 2002, and stated the
high of year 2000 would not be surpassed.
Well 7 years later the DOW has indeed surpassed the year 2000 high!
High of 2000 was ~12000, today it is ~13000 !!!

Listening to his advice would cost one dearly.
Not only missing out on the recent market rise, but also constantly
pushing one to take a bearish stance against the market during the
entire rise over the past 5 years, while the market was rising!

Amazing.......2007-01-23

That's amazing book to a small investors. It will show to you the behavior of stock market. But you must read it at least twice in order to get everything you need to know.

The landmark book that sparked my love for financial markets as a child.......2006-12-18

No matter what you think about Elliott Wave, Technical Analysis or Robert Prechter, this book is a classic in its field and the definitive introduction to Elliott Wave.

For me, this was - the - book that deepened my love of financial markets as a child, it's influence on me was profound in many ways. I still remember buying it after having saved up $50 to purchase it as an expensive import in the early 1980s when I was in my early teens. I carefully read each page as if it was gold thinking the secrets of the universe were slowly being explained to me... and this was before Prechter gained legendary status in 1987. I met Prechter in 1990 at a speech he was giving in Australia and was struck at his love for markets and for Elliott Wave. It impacted me powerfully at the time that in between speeches he was calling his office to get market updates. He's dedicated his entire life to Elliott Wave with passion and love and I really admire that.

I've learned a lot since those days, including the danger of relying on any forecasting method as being the holly grail. Elliott Wave is not something I've traded with in many years and I believe it would be very challenging to do so profitably without substantial work and going much beyond the information contained in this volume. Personally, I think the theory has a lot of validity, and blends well with Fibonacci, it's just that getting it to work is challenging. I also am not all that keen on some of his more modern day extensions like the double and triple threes that kind of get labeled x-y-z-a-b-c-d-e-f-g-h etc. it's just going to far IMHO. I also the power now of mindsets, I spent most of the 1990s thinking we were certain for another great depression and while that could eventually happen, it was a mindset that held me in place of contraction and fear for one of the greatest periods of growth in my history... a major lesson for me around beliefs and the need not to get caught up in theories. I still think though that Elliott Wave offers profound and valuable insights into human and market behavior.

It's no secret Prechter's basic forecast has been wrong for something approaching fibonacci 21 years... there's no doubt though that he thinks differently, very differently and also truly in a contrary fashion as is evidenced in much of his written forecasts in the EWT publication over the years and other books. He's a sharp thinker and much of that can be seen in this volume. And, to his credit, he's not been afraid to put his forecasts in writing or to stand behind them.

The book consists of a comprehensive introduction to the theory Elliott Wave, true to the work of R.N. Elliott himself. Most of the other books or published work on Elliott will have been based on this work, so it's important to start here with your study of Elliott. The first part consists of the basic tenets, associated rules and guidelines with many diagrams and charts to illustrate the concept, a discussion of the historical and mathematical background including a comprehensive discussion of Fibonacci numbers. The second part of the book involves the practical application. The authors being brave enough to keep the work from older editions of the book with forecasts and guidelines intact. There's a little discussion of cycles and other theories including Dow Theory and the Kondratieff Wave. The Elliott Wave theory is applied to stocks and gold with detailed forecasts and descriptions and in my book, the forecast for the 1990s with great detail and discussion as to the reasons for the forecast.

If you like this book, you may also find useful some of the work by Bryce Gillmore (from Australia) in his two hard to find (and more recent) volumes.

This was, and I think still deserves recognition as being a ground breaking book in technical analysis.

Best wishes for your trading and thank you to Robert Prechter and A. J Frost for a such a wonderful piece of work.

No delivery.......2006-11-03

I have not received my order yet although you said I could expect the delivery in early September.

Subjective and unconvincing.......2006-07-13

I purchased this book many years ago when i was market uneducated and market naive and believed that I was missing something as I could never make the connections the author has made throughout his book. After years of studying the markets and attempting to trade profitably, I have revisited this book once again and am just as annoyed with the conclusions the author has made. I am confidant that my work resolves the wave like behavior that defines price movement more precisely than the author. Perhaps it was the clean slate with which I began my research. From what I can gather, people were attracted to the wave analysis because of the author but unfortunately his thesis has proven to be ineffective for traders. As a member of the technician's society I have hoped to introduce my ideas regarding this subject to the author and convince him my approach is more applicable than his. I am embarrassed to announce that this is not even my full time job as real estate consumes much of my time and trading is merely a hobby. Just think if I were able to devote full time. Regardless this book fails just as it did the first read many years ago.

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